More on Trump approval (updated Nov 2019)

In prior posts I’ve shown some results of a model predicting quarterly job approval for Trump.  The analysis uses quarterly approval of presidents prior to Trump to model the effect of lagged approval (e.g., Q4 of last year on Q1 of the next), the political context (i.e., divided or unified government), and economic factors (GDP […]

Measuring success in Government courses

I’ve been wondering: do our majors excel in our courses relative to other classes they take at Bowdoin? I used data from a recent graduating class and plotted the students’ GPA in their Government courses against their overall Bowdoin GPA.  I have suppressed the numeric labeling to make it clear that I’m not interested in […]

Ballot Questions in Maine, Polling Edition

Given my interest in ballot questions in Maine history, I’ve set out to collect as much polling data as possible on these questions.  Many poll results are posted to Ballotpedia and Wikipedia–aggregated from news coverage of the polls in recent election years–but I’ve also been fortunate to collect additional polls from my colleague, Chris Potholm, […]

Cost of Campaigns, 1888-2018

I’m giving some remarks this week at the 7th Circuit Bar Association’s symposium on “Revitalizing Article I.”  I’ll be talking a lot about political advertising, but I’ll start with some discussion of the cost of federal campaigns.  Here is a portion of my remarks with accompanying graphs. “I want to talk with you today about political […]

(More) Ballot Questions and Making Maps

My interests in ballot questions and map-making continue to collide.  Below is a map of 2016 advertising data on ballot questions.  The map plots ad totals for the 2015-16 election cycle at the level of the media market, which consist of collections of counties.  There are over 3,000 counties in the United States, but 210 […]

Ballot Questions and Making Maps

I’ve been working on some map-making skills in R, using the usmap package and ggplot.  This coincides with an interest of mine in variation across the states in the prevalence of ballot measures (i.e., direct democracy opportunities).  My attempt at mapping this is below, and relies on Ballotpedia classifications here and here. Getting a good […]